The hovering variety of individuals crossing into the US from Mexico has been a political vulnerability for President Biden for the previous three years, chipping away at his approval score and opening him as much as political assaults.

However now, the disaster is threatening to upend America’s help for the struggle in Ukraine, throwing the centerpiece of Mr. Biden’s international coverage into jeopardy.

After a gathering with Mr. Biden on the White Home on Wednesday, Speaker Mike Johnson insisted that the Republican-led Home would not pass legislation to ship assist to Ukraine except Democrats agreed to sweeping new restrictions on the U.S.-Mexico border.

And even when the 2 sides do come to some kind of settlement, many Republicans, particularly within the Home, can be loath to present an election-year win to Mr. Biden on a difficulty that has given them a strong line of criticism towards the White Home. The difficulty can also be on the heart of the candidacy of Mr. Biden’s possible opponent this fall, former President Donald J. Trump.

The stalemate reveals how the controversy over immigration in the US is now not simply in regards to the border. The difficulty is spilling over into different components of Mr. Biden’s agenda, taking up outsize affect as Republicans use it to dam the president’s prime international coverage priorities.

“I feel the overwhelming majority of members of Congress help assist to Ukraine,” Mr. Biden informed reporters on Thursday earlier than touring to Raleigh, N.C. “The query is whether or not or not a small minority are going to carry it up, which might be a catastrophe.”

Mr. Biden has characterised assist to Ukraine as a matter of American management on the worldwide stage. If the US fails to ship extra, he warned final month, different allies could again off their very own commitments. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, he mentioned, may reclaim momentum within the struggle.

However Home Republicans have thus far been unmoved. Mr. Johnson mentioned this week he was centered on “nationwide safety and a humanitarian disaster” inside U.S. borders.

Janet Napolitano, former governor of Arizona and homeland safety secretary within the Obama administration, mentioned she couldn’t bear in mind a time in latest many years when a lot of an administration’s agenda hinged on immigration coverage.

The laws that Mr. Biden is pushing doesn’t solely embody Ukraine assist. It additionally has cash for Israel and Taiwan — and billions of {dollars} to bolster safety alongside the U.S.-Mexico border, simply not sufficient to fulfill Republican calls for.

“They checked out this as a chance they usually’ve taken it,” mentioned Ms. Napolitano, who described the politics of immigration proper now as “dire.”

“It actually means the president has obtained to go so far as he can and to work with these throughout the aisle to get a bundle by means of,” she mentioned.

Mr. Biden has mentioned he’s prepared to make compromises on the border. Democratic negotiators, with the approval of the White Home, have signaled that they might think about proposals making it tougher to realize asylum in the US.

The White Home has appeared much less prepared to considerably prohibit humanitarian parole, a program that has allowed 1000’s of Afghans, Ukrainians and migrants on the border to enter the US.

Whereas members of Congress are nonetheless debating particulars of that coverage, it’s not clear that compromise is within the playing cards.

In an interview with Fox Information on Wednesday night, Mr. Johnson made a degree of claiming he had spoken in regards to the negotiations with Mr. Trump, who inspired him to oppose compromising.

Mr. Biden can also be going through pushback from progressives, who don’t need to see restrictions on asylum.

“Republicans are holding international assist hostage to extract excessive immigration measures that may not remedy the issue,” mentioned Nanette Barragán, Democrat of California and chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. “Many people help assist to Ukraine, however not on the expense of those excessive immigration insurance policies on the desk.”

Jim Kessler, govt vp for coverage at Third Manner, a center-left assume tank, mentioned the linking of assist for Ukraine to frame restrictions was “unprecedented.”

“It’s laborious to think about a time beforehand in our nation’s historical past the place one thing that’s so necessary from a nationwide safety standpoint, that may usually unite all People of each political events, is caught up in video games,” Mr. Kessler mentioned.

The White Home initially portrayed the choice to pair immigration with the army funding request as an enticement, or on the very least an try at compromise, to win over Republicans who had been calling on Mr. Biden to get more durable on the border.

William B. Taylor Jr., who served as ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009, mentioned there can be extreme penalties each for Ukraine and the US if the technique ended up failing.

“I think about that the calculation was that there’s quite a lot of help for these and if we put all of them collectively we’ll have a profitable technique,” Mr. Taylor mentioned. But when the White Home can not attain a deal, he added, it will undermine “a vital part of U.S. international coverage.”

“That U.S. management can be badly broken if we will’t present the help to the Ukrainians to permit them to cease the Russians now,” he mentioned. “It has monumental implications.”

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