Nikki Haley’s presidential aspirations might dangle on a victory within the New Hampshire main election on Tuesday, powered by her sway with people who don’t belong to a political get together. It’s not a nasty wager in a state the place about 40 % of voters name themselves independents.

The issue together with her plan: These voters are available all shapes and stripes, and lots of of them aren’t open to her.

Ms. Haley, the previous governor of South Carolina, has received over loads of voters within the center in New Hampshire. They embrace average, conservative-leaning independents chased from the Republican Occasion by former President Donald J. Trump. And about 4,000 Democrats have re-registered as Republicans or independents to vote within the G.O.P. main, in some circumstances to thwart Mr. Trump’s regular march to the nomination.

However New Hampshire’s probably essential main can even embrace many different varieties of voters who’ve chosen to maintain their distance from each events:

  • Independents on the left who’re loyal to their next-door senator, Bernie Sanders.

  • Independents on the suitable who plan to vote within the Democratic main in opposition to President Biden.

  • True swing voters who’re up for grabs in each election.

  • And dealing-class Trump supporters who don’t need to belong to a Republican Occasion lengthy related to the wealthy — however who’re very a lot within the former president’s camp.

“Our nation was thriving when he was in final time, so I’m going to go together with what I do know,” mentioned Stacy Kolofoles of Laconia, who’s a longtime unbiased however nonetheless “can’t see myself ever voting for a Democrat.”

Two dozen interviews with New Hampshire independents revealed stark challenges in addition to ample alternatives for Ms. Haley as she courts the state’s largest political constituency. A new poll from Saint Anselm College spelled it out: Mr. Trump led Ms. Haley by 65 % to 25 % amongst possible Republican voters within the state, whereas she edged him amongst unaffiliated voters by a significantly narrower margin, 52 % to 37 %.

That 37 % of independents for Mr. Trump could also be decisive, nevertheless. Amongst all voters, he had a considerable benefit, 52 % to 38 %, and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida trailed far behind with 6 %.

However the political quirkiness of the state’s unbiased voters implies that it stays unpredictable how they may have an effect on Tuesday’s outcomes — and finally whether or not New Hampshire will gradual or pace up Mr. Trump within the dash to the nomination.

New Hampshire has one of many highest percentages of unbiased voter registration within the nation, up there with Washington, Iowa and Colorado, based on an evaluation of polling information by The New York Occasions. As of late December, 343,192 New Hampshire voters had registered as undeclared, whereas 262,262 had been Democrats and 267,905 had been Republicans.

And a lot of these independents are college-educated average voters, the type who’ve gravitated to Ms. Haley, particularly since former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey left the presidential race

Colin Carberry, 52, of Dover, is one in all them. Mr. Carberry, who works in finance and lives in what he described as an prosperous suburban neighborhood, voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, “and I’m not ashamed to confess my mistake.”

He won’t try this once more.

“He solely cares about his personal ego, empowering himself and his household on the expense of the nation,” Mr. Carberry mentioned.

He expects to vote for Ms. Haley however isn’t thrilled about it. He recalled being “stunned” when she stumbled by way of an answer about the cause of the Civil War, neglecting to say slavery, and he would have most well-liked that she shut down hypothesis that she would possibly function Mr. Trump’s operating mate.

His Dover neighbor, Joe Merullo, 68, who retired after 43 years with Sears to play bass in traditional rock and get together bands, has by no means registered with a political get together. However, he mentioned, he has additionally by no means voted for a Democrat for president, beginning when he forged his poll for Gerald Ford in 1976. He actually wished Mr. Christie, however with out him within the race, Mr. Merullo mentioned, he would vote for Ms. Haley with little enthusiasm.

A Trump-Biden common election can be even worse, he mentioned.

“I don’t know what I’ll do, and it seems to be like I’ll be confronted with that selection,” he mentioned.

A lack of passion for Ms. Haley additionally surfaced in polls earlier than Iowa’s caucuses.

The ultimate Iowa Poll from The Des Moines Register, NBC Information and Mediacom discovered that solely 9 % of her supporters mentioned they had been extraordinarily enthusiastic to assist her. The ballot pointed to a slim second-place end for her, if she may rally her hesitant voters.

She didn’t, and fell to third place on Monday.

Such apprehension was evident in interviews with New Hampshire independents who had been contemplating Ms. Haley.

David Fournier, 78, of Nashua, considers himself a lifelong Democrat and mentioned he volunteered for the campaigns of Invoice Clinton and Howard Dean. However he’s not registered with a political get together, he mentioned, so he can hold the pliability to vote in both get together’s main relying on the competition.

He’s leaning towards casting a poll for Ms. Haley, although he mentioned he would “in no way” assist her in November ought to she win the nomination.

“It’s not a pro-Haley vote, it’s a negative-Trump vote,” Mr. Fournier mentioned, including, “Something to place a ding on his belt.”

A number of efforts are underway to have interaction undeclared voters within the main. A brand new tremendous PAC known as Independents Transferring the Needle on Wednesday started operating two ads in New Hampshire that includes unbiased voters talking on to digicam about their assist for Ms. Haley. The group has booked greater than $200,000 in airtime by way of Main Day, based on AdImpact, a media monitoring agency.

“That is about preserving our democracy, and there’s a person who’s a risk to democracy,” mentioned Robert Schwartz, who’s main another initiative to encourage voters — specifically, undeclared voters who participated within the 2020 Democratic main — to vote within the Republican race this 12 months in opposition to Mr. Trump.

If something, the interviews had been maybe extra heartening for Mr. Biden than for Ms. Haley.

New Hampshire has voted for Democratic presidential candidates since George W. Bush won the state in 2000.

However the state remains to be purple, with an all-Democratic congressional delegation however Republican management of the state legislature and governorship, because of unbiased voters like Kathleen Grindle Mack, 64, of Plainfield.

She has by no means voted for a Republican for president however has executed so for governor, and he or she plans to again Ms. Haley subsequent week, calling her the “least objectionable” possibility.

The prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch makes her need to “transfer to Canada,” she mentioned, however she would in all probability vote for Mr. Biden, except Ms. Haley received the Republican nomination.

“Trump scares me; Trump terrifies me,” she mentioned. “Once I was on the college, I studied European fascism, and he may have written the e book on it.”

Bob Terrell, 82, a lifelong unbiased residing in Goffstown, close to the Uncanoonuc Mountains, voted for Mr. Trump in 2016. Now, he mentioned, he thinks “Trump is a wacko.”

Then once more, there are undeclared voters like Denyce Wallace, 57, of Harmony. She supported Mr. Trump in 2020 and plans to take action once more, saying she noticed him as a person of motion.

“I want there have been completely different candidates to select from, perhaps, however I’d fairly have any individual who’s going to say one thing after which do it,” she mentioned.

In fact, not all New Hampshire independents are deciding between Mr. Trump and Ms. Haley.

Joseph Lombardo, 73, of Windham, close to the Massachusetts state line, considers himself unbiased, although he couldn’t bear in mind how he’s registered. He was deciding this week between Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis.

“It doesn’t seem that he’s going to do something completely different than what Trump did, so why not vote for the unique?” he mentioned of Mr. DeSantis.

Richard Bogart, 71, from Tamworth, voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 as a result of, he mentioned, the Democratic Occasion had not regarded out for the “poor man and the union man.”

Mr. Biden received him again in 2020, and if Mr. Bogart votes within the main on Tuesday, he’ll write in the president’s name, despite the fact that Mr. Biden won’t be on the poll, since New Hampshire Democrats didn’t abide by the get together’s new main order.

Mr. Bogart cited a hefty cost-of-living adjustment in Social Safety advantages amid excessive inflation, and his fears that Republicans may roll again this system.

“Social Safety, they’re at all times speaking about getting rid of it, and he gave me a increase,” he mentioned of Mr. Biden. “That’s the perfect factor a president ever did for me personally.”

Ms. Haley clearly has many potential voters within the huge sea of independents, as evidenced by her rise in the polls to turn into extra aggressive with Mr. Trump.

“One factor I beloved about Nikki Haley, she stood and mentioned, ‘I’m not a lawyer, I’m an accountant,’” mentioned Thomas Gross, a lifelong unbiased and retired Air Power officer who lives close to Portsmouth. “Though I’m in favor of most of the extra liberal social points, I spotted that we’d like a great economic system to supply funding for these points, like pay for households with dependent kids.”

Ms. Haley has to hope that the center holds over the approaching days, together with folks like Brian Smith, a 68-year-old engineer from Nashua who takes a dim view of each political events or, as he known as them, “the 2 political companies.”

In 2020, he mentioned, he wrote in “essentially the most average individual I may consider.” (He declined to share the identify.) In 2024, he would write in a candidate once more, maybe Ms. Haley, if Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden had been the 2 nominees.

However he had excessive hopes for Ms. Haley, who has his vote on Tuesday.

“Her stint within the United Nations has made her much more clever than I’m within the political ramifications of world politics,” he mentioned. “She did fairly nicely in her personal state when she was there.”

He concluded, “She isn’t appearing as extremist as the opposite folks operating in her get together.”

Neil Vigdor and Ruth Igielnik contributed reporting.

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