Natalie Portman does a few of the finest work of her profession in “Might December,” however the movie merely isn’t catching on with the guilds and he or she now needs to be thought of a contender on the bubble. Ditto Fantasia Barrino-Taylor, who has some powerhouse moments late in “The Colour Purple” however wasn’t capable of handle a SAG nomination. And although the “Previous Lives” star Greta Lee is worthy, her work could also be too understated to surpass such flashy competitors.

That leaves us with Annette Bening, SAG-nominated for her powerful, bodily position in “Nyad,” and the “Barbie” linchpin Margot Robbie. I give Robbie the sting since her movie is such a powerful contender throughout the board, however effervescent comedy is the kind of factor voters usually take without any consideration, and Robbie made her tough position look as simple as respiration.

It’s “Barbenheimer” redux on this class, the place the “Oppenheimer” foe Robert Downey Jr. and the “Barbie” beau Ryan Gosling will in all probability go head-to-head for the gold. Robert De Niro, so memorably malevolent in “Killers of the Flower Moon,” can be in a powerful place to be nominated after nods from SAG, Critics Selection and the Golden Globes, plus a point out on the BAFTA longlist.

After these three contenders, issues get hazy.

A pair of buzzy younger actors might fill the final two spots: Charles Melton (“Might December”) and Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”). However the academy is weirdly proof against nominating younger males — an issue they don’t have in any respect on the subject of younger girls — and neither Melton nor Sessa broke via at SAG. The actors guild did nominate Sterling Okay. Brown, who performs Wright’s brother in “American Fiction” and will definitely rating with the academy if the movie performs nicely.

Nonetheless, with so many performances to select from, I feel voters could default to 2 veteran actors from one of many season’s strongest movies, “Poor Issues.” Willem Dafoe already managed a SAG nod for enjoying Emma Stone’s cuckoo creator, and although his co-star Mark Ruffalo was dealt a stunning snub by the guild, SAG gave him an identical chilly shoulder for “Highlight” earlier than the Oscar nominations got here in with a last-minute save. Twin supporting nods from one movie has been a sizzling pattern in recent times, and if there’s any race the place that’s prone to occur, it’s this one.

Is Da’Vine Pleasure Randolph from “The Holdovers” this 12 months’s inheritor obvious to Ke Huy Quan and Troy Kotsur? These two supporting actors swamped their competitors all season on the best way to completely assured Oscar wins in recent times, and Randolph has been following swimsuit, bagging critics’ awards proper and left and taking each televised trophy to date.

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