The query for watchers of election nights all over the place is at all times the identical: How late am I going to should wait for this?

Some states have constant sufficient histories to permit that query to be answered with relative confidence. Iowa is just not one in all them.

Usually, precincts in Iowa have begun reporting outcomes in a short time. In 2016, for instance, they did so shortly after 8:30 p.m. Japanese time, nearly half an hour after the caucuses started. And almost all outcomes have been in by 12:50 a.m. Japanese time that 12 months.

In 2020, although, the system melted down through the Democratic caucuses, and the Iowa Democratic Occasion was unable to launch any significant results that night. Full results came days afterward.

Even in years when the counting was fast, outcomes that have been initially reported weren’t at all times correct. Within the Republican contest in 2012, the caucus-night numbers confirmed that Mitt Romney had won by eight votes. The Iowa Republican Occasion stated greater than two weeks later that Rick Santorum had actually won by 34 votes.

This 12 months’s caucuses are usually not anticipated to be wherever close to that aggressive, though the race for second place between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley might be. Nonetheless, it’s finest to be ready for something.

Alicia Parlapiano contributed reporting.

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