Now that the Republican presidential main race has moved to New Hampshire from Iowa, a couple of issues will change.
The evangelical Christian social conservatism that dominates Iowa’s Republican politics is out, changed by fiscal hawkishness and a libertarian streak rooted within the Granite State’s “Stay Free or Die” ethos.
With Iowa totally within the rearview mirror, count on to listen to a variation on the phrase “Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents,” a favourite native slogan that aggrandizes the state’s position within the nominating course of. Nonetheless, ask Pat Buchanan and John McCain about how successful New Hampshire in 1996 and 2000 catapulted them to the White Home.
One factor is obvious: New Hampshire Republicans assume their consideration to federal spending and the nationwide debt makes them so much smarter than their Iowa brethren, for whom abortion and transgender points have been atop the agenda.
“You will have a extra subtle voters in New Hampshire,” mentioned Ryan Williams, a Republican operative who bought his begin within the state working for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaigns. “New Hampshire voters exude rugged individualism and flinty Yankee frugality. It’s a special state of affairs.”
Exit polls from Iowa urged that most of the state’s Republican caucusgoers determined to again former President Donald J. Trump lengthy earlier than the marketing campaign’s last stretch there. New Hampshire voters have a well-earned status for making their selections late. Mr. McCain’s 2008 victory — which did propel him to the nomination — adopted a last surge over Mr. Romney and different rivals.
This yr, former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina is betting that there’s sufficient elasticity amongst New Hampshire voters that momentum can carry her previous Mr. Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.
For weeks, she has performed to the self-importance of New Hampshire Republicans. When she mentioned that the state’s main voters would “correct” the outcome of Iowa’s caucuses, she was channeling a long-held perception amongst Granite State Republicans that they’ve a greater grasp on what kind of politician is greatest suited to changing into the get together’s presidential nominee.
Her comment earned her an attack ad from Mr. DeSantis that was in heavy rotation on Iowa tv. However the identical sentiment is prone to win her plaudits in New Hampshire.
“We don’t know from the polling what’s going to occur subsequent week,” Chris Ager, the chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Occasion, mentioned Tuesday on CNN. “We simply have a really independent-minded voters, they usually’re not going to take a look at what occurred in Iowa and decide primarily based on that.”
Mr. DeSantis, who has accused each Mr. Trump and Ms. Haley of being insufficiently dedicated to banning abortion, and has positioned his opposition to transgender rights on the heart of the marketing campaign, has not centered closely on New Hampshire. He has shifted his post-Iowa sources to South Carolina.
“Individuals aren’t selecting their presidential candidate in New Hampshire primarily based on the place they stand on transgender rights,” mentioned Steve Duprey, a former McCain aide who was a Republican Nationwide Committee member from New Hampshire earlier than being ousted for not being loyal sufficient to Mr. Trump.
Final yr, Mr. Duprey endorsed Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina within the presidential race. Then, when Mr. Scott dropped out, he threw his help behind Ms. Haley, and he’s now working to piece collectively the previous McCain coalition to assist her cease Mr. Trump from working away with the nomination once more.
The problem Mr. Duprey faces is that for a lot of the get together, the previous concentrate on fiscal points has been changed by the magnetism of Mr. Trump, who in 2016 won the state’s primary election by almost 20 share factors. That contest all however crushed the hopes of a number of reasonable rivals, together with Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Chris Christie, and gave an inconceivable enhance to John Kasich, who completed second.
Now, Ms. Haley’s possibilities of displaying she will be able to compete with Mr. Trump past subsequent week could depend upon her potential to reincarnate herself as the following coming of Mr. McCain because the marketing campaign strikes to her dwelling state, South Carolina. The massive query is whether or not New Hampshire Republicans see her that manner.